The REAL demographic behind Obama's falling poll numbers

Obama's poll numbers have been in the news a lot, lately . . . and while they aren't terrible, the trend is troubling.

According the folks at Pew Research, in the period from April to August -- a mere four months -- Obama's favorable poll numbers have dropped a full ten points.

In April, 62% of the public approved of Barack Obama's performance as president and 26% disapproved. In August, just four months later, 52% approved of Obama's job performance while 37% disapproved. Pew Research Center for the People & the Press 4 Sept. 2009

George Bush would have killed for that kind of support (actually, he did kill for that . . . but I didn't mean quite that literally... ) but for Obama, who rode a tide of high expectations and good will, those numbers are a hard comeuppance.

By rights, he should have managed to keep high 60's well into next year . . . but instead, his numbers have vanished.

Why?

To hear pundits, talk-show hosts and radio news-program analysts tell it, all that brouhaha inveighed at Town Hall meetings over the summer eventually worked its way back to Pennsylvania Avenue. Astro-turfed or not, all that embarrassing yelling, screaming and crying really worked to undercut support for Democrats in general and Obama in particular ... especially when it comes to healthcare reform.

I see it differently.

See, I was an Obama man from almost the get-go ... and long before he officially declared his candidacy.

I was drawn to his opposition to the Iraq War, of course, but I was also hopeful that he could be an instrument of real change.

Some real, badly-need change.

When he incorporated "Change" into his campaign, I was even more hopeful and I wasn't alone.

Young voters were enthralled at the idea of major changes in Washington.

Hispanics and Blacks and Women and other minorities saw America making a sharp left turn from the Christian-Heterosexual-White-Male paradigm.

We wanted an end to unnecessary wars.

We wanted a restoration of Civil Rights and a stop to end-runs around the Constitution.

We wanted an end to secret commissions, military commissions, secret prisons and Guantanamo prisons.

We wanted a return to openness and transparency in government and the people government employs.

We wanted a Cabinet with reformers and scientists who weren't beholden to witch-doctor-vintage religious nuts.

We wanted a return to reason.

Oh... and healthcare reform would be nice, too.

So far, what have we gotten?

Iraq continues.

Afghanistan increases.

The Cabinet is full of Bush-Clintonites.

No investigations of past wrongdoing is anywhere on the horizon.

Guantanamo continues, for now.

A first blush of transparency went translucent and now appears headed towards more opacity.

And on and on it goes.

Our hopes have been dashed and that "change" we wanted has morphed into chump change.

Obama's plunging poll numbers aren't coming from the other side of the aisle.

I've got news for them Democrats: those off-the-cliff numbers are "me!" . . . and people like me.

If I were given a call from a polling agency today and were asked if I thought Obama's administration was "on the right track," my answer would be a definitive "No."

A good number of my friends would say the same.

So, all you Republicans who are dancing in the street tonight: not so fast.

My opinion can change real fast towards this man if -- or when -- he actually starts acting like the President I, maybe mistakenly, thought we elected. I know your opinion is pretty-much locked in stone, so nothing has changed on your side.

But for us, this show ain't over until it's over . . .

and we got 3 1/2 good years to change our minds.